‘Nuclear Weapons Alone May Not Prevent Conflict in South Asia,’

The Daily Times
Mar 27, 2008

WASHINGTON: A new study of the 10-month military standoff between India and Pakistan following the attack on Lok Sabha in New Delhi in December 2001 has concluded that nuclear weapons may help stabilise an adversarial relationship but they certainly do not prevent severe crises that can lead to a conflict. The study by Stimson Centre’s Scoville fellow Alex Stolar includes interviews with two former members of India’s cabinet committee on security, Brajesh Mishra and Jaswant Singh, as well as with other senior Indian national security officials who were in government during the confrontation. Limited war: Another of the report’s conclusions is that while notions of “limited” war are a staple of the deterrence literature, carrying out a limited military action under the nuclear umbrella entails substantial risks. Statesmen and generals considering launching a “limited war” would have to consider what factors would keep a limited military action limited, and what factors would cause a limited military action to escalate. The study also maintains that “message management” during a crisis is both essential and difficult.